The dogs of stoxdox: Top 5 income stocks
Uncertainty is a defining feature of the moment, creating asymmetric risk/reward opportunities for these companies.
IBM is a technology leader for the next cycle
The market is underestimating IBM’s leadership position in the largest growth opportunities of our time, artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
Market Outlook: Risk-on risk-off
A phase change is in progress as returns and diversification potential return to the bond market creating opportunity.
FedEx and the recession
While the unfolding recession has yet to be widely accepted, FedEx’s share price has been pricing it in for eighteen months.
Gold is on the efficient frontier
Gold and a uniquely asymmetric risk/reward opportunity for optimizing portfolios, high beta exposure to an uncorrelated asset class.
Market Outlook: What is water?
The fish swim on… eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes “What the hell is water?
A top sector choice for the coming cycle
With the global energy transition entering a new phase, the early-stage cyclical upturn will be amplified by a diverse set of secular growth opportunities.
The recession is here, filter the noise
All signs point to a recession being in progress. In periods of heightened uncertainty, the greatest risk is mistaking noise for signals.
Ignore the inflation noise
Major stock indices sold off 4% to 5% in response to a higher-than-expected CPI in August. Is the CPI new information or noise?
CNX Resources: The Saudi Arabia of natural gas
CNX’s world-class assets offer an exceptional NAV growth opportunity while the door is open to an extraordinary free cash flow story.
Eastman Chemical is entering a bull market
Eastman’s growth opportunities are exceptional while low expectations and a discounted valuation create upside asymmetry.
Top commodities for the energy transition
The energy transition is a secular growth driver, creating exceptional risk/reward opportunities for the commodity beneficiaries.
S&P 500: Where we go after Jackson Hole
The downtrend looks likely to continue with extraordinary opportunities being created under the surface.
snapdox: Macerich
Macerich offers upside asymmetry with high quality real estate at a discounted price.
snapdox: JELD-WEN
JELD-WEN is trading near historic lows at a deep discount creating upside opportunity.
snapdox: Toll Brothers
Toll Brothers is unbounded to the upside while the downside is well anchored.
snapdox: Occidental Petroleum
Occidental has world-class assets and an increasingly attractive opportunity set.
snapdox: RH
RH offers one of the largest growth opportunities in the consumer discretionary sector.
snapdox: Fortinet Inc.
The rejection of Fortinet at such a critical juncture creates a decidedly bearish technical picture.
Is C3 AI the greatest software opportunity of our time?
C3 AI is a top pure play on one of the largest secular growth opportunities of our time, artificial intelligence.
Freeport McMoRan, Doctor Copper makes a house call
Freeport McMoRan offers one of the most levered opportunities to the largest secular growth trend of our time.
BWX Technologies is a perfect recession stock
BWXT’s visibility, discounted valuation, asymmetric return profile, and vast growth opportunities in nuclear technology make it a top choice.
Oracle foresees hypergrowth
Oracle has visibility into cloud hypergrowth and vast healthcare opportunities with increasing competitive strength.
S&P 500: The path forward
With the S&P 500 cementing a head and shoulders top, the bond market is signaling the likely path forward for those who are looking.
Rio Tinto is a perfect portfolio diversifier
Rio Tinto offers something for everyone: growth, income, and diversification.
Palantir has visibility into the upside
Palantir offers one of the largest long-term growth opportunities in the marketplace.
Netflix: Show me the money
Netflix offers above-average growth potential and strong pricing power at a discounted valuation.
Is Aspen Aerogels the next 10 bagger?
With one of the most prolific growth profiles in the marketplace and the backing of a top-tier investment firm, Aspen Aerogels offers a rare tenbagger opportunity.
QQQ: Curb your enthusiasm
The QQQs have extreme concentration and multiple contraction risk within a bearish trend.
Schlumberger is an asymmetric opportunity with supercycle potential
Is Schlumberger an asymmetric opportunity at the early stage of a supercycle?
Pfizer and how it could double
Pfizer is executing an aggressive growth strategy while trading at a deeply discounted valuation atop unusually strong technical support.
SPY: The death cross and what you need to know
The stock market is in a primary downtrend with all three major US averages experiencing a death cross.
Meta Platforms is an asymmetric innovation opportunity
Meta Platform’s innovation leadership, strong technical support, and discounted valuation offer an asymmetric growth opportunity.
Corning is on the cusp of a new bull market
Corning has above-average growth prospects, a sizable margin expansion opportunity, is an industry leader, and trades at a deeply discounted valuation.
Will PayPal deliver alpha?
PayPal is the growth and market leader in the fintech space while consistently outperforming its peer group by nearly 2x.
Will Ford surpass Tesla by 2025?
Ford’s autonomous vehicle leadership, superior strategic roadmap, and AI advantage may indeed make it more valuable than Tesla by 2025.
Snap: Unconstrained growth in the metaverse
Snap offers peer-leading growth, rapidly expanding profitability, and is strategically positioned at the intersection of social media and augmented reality.
Palantir: Red flag or opportunity?
Palantir comes under the spotlight as the investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.
Kinross Gold is an asymmetric opportunity
The Great Bear acquisition creates upside leverage to resource growth for Kinross, the fifth largest gold producer in the world.
Rio Tinto is an asymmetric global growth opportunity
Rio Tinto is an asymmetric global growth opportunity for the coming energy transition and infrastructure boom.
BorgWarner is a top choice for EV growth
BorgWarner offers an exceptional secular and cyclical growth opportunity while trading at a deeply discounted valuation.
Schlumberger is a top choice for cyclical growth through 2023
Schlumberger offers a rare, high-quality, asymmetric growth opportunity with a high confidence expected return profile.
BWXT is leading the nuclear technology renaissance
BWXT operates behind a wide competitive moat, is a mission critical nuclear technology supplier, and is leading the nuclear technology renaissance.
Twitter is still trying to stick a landing
Twitter has yet to demonstrate an ability to leverage the most dynamic social platform for non-advertising revenue growth.
Agnico Eagle is the premier investment for gold growth
Agnico Eagle’s merger with Kirkland Lake creates an elite blue-chip gold miner with an asymmetric risk reward potential.
CrowdStrike is all risk, no reward
CrowdStrike trades at an extreme valuation while experiencing decelerating sales growth, intensifying competition and pricing pressure.
Disney battles to retain the content king crown
Disney is battling lower profitability, intensifying competition, slowing subscribers, and an elevated valuation.
IBM dons Red Hat for a new era of growth
IBM now offers a growth-focused business portfolio with key segments growing in the mid-teens.
Intel will be the top semiconductor stock through 2030
Intel is leveraging its R&D competitive advantage with an aggressive capital investment strategy creating a compelling semiconductor opportunity.
Airbnb remains on an extended stay
Airbnb trades at an extreme valuation while revenue growth is rapidly decelerating creating downside asymmetry in its expected return profile.
Barrick Gold is on the efficient frontier
Barrick is an industry leader and consolidator in a commodity bull market supported by a strong balance sheet, substantial free cash flow generation, and an attractive valuation.
Pfizer is an asymmetric growth opportunity
Pfizer’s shares are unbounded to the upside while the downside is anchored by strong fundamentals, an incredibly low valuation, and long-term technical support.
Amazon is lost in the jungle
Amazon is at risk of missing estimates in the face of a low return investment cycle while trading at an elevated valuation.
Square is operating outside the box
The recent acquisition red flags combined with the surprise Sunday earnings report place Square’s outperformance in the spotlight.
Etsy’s profit margins are hanging by a thread
Etsy is facing a profitability and sales decline as market participants reconsider their growth expectations and valuation assumptions.
Teladoc Health needs a wellness check
Teladoc continues to warrant a wellness check following a 58% decline. The risks continue to outweigh the rewards.
Warby Parker is in the eye of the beholder
Warby Parker offers a substantial secular growth opportunity if it can fulfill its potential.
Coinbase continues to cash in on US retail customers
Coinbase relies on crypto trading by US retail investors while facing regulatory risk and displaying corporate governance red flags.
Robinhood will see the forest for the trees
Robinhood is increasingly reliant on speculative and volatile revenue streams which is beginning to show in its increasing churn rate.
Sunrun is walking a fine line
Sunrun’s business model is generating increasing levels of negative free cash flow. Will Sunrun ever be in the black?
Lululemon is trying to stick a landing
Lululemon has a heightened risk of disappointing earnings growth in 2022 due to margin contraction. The risk is amplified by an elevated valuation and intensifying competition.
Is the boom over for Zoom?
Zoom is a negative risk/reward due to an elevated valuation, rapidly decelerating sales growth and initial signs of margin pressure.
Peloton is pushing itself to the limit
Peloton faces extraordinary execution risk in the face of slowing sales, heavy investment requirements, and a strained balance sheet.
GoodRx needs a transformation script
GoodRx is building the leading, consumer-focused digital healthcare platform in the United States. The ambitious plan raises the stakes.
UiPath is on an uncertain revenue trail
Artificial intelligence and machine learning offer extraordinary growth prospects. Whether UiPath will be a leader remains to be seen.
Lululemon’s segment sales are upside down
Lululemon’s growth has been impressive, however, there are clouds on the horizon which warrant caution given the elevated valuation.
GameStop is channeling meme energy for a reboot
The question for GameStop investors is whether it is too little too late or can the company successfully execute a turnaround.
Sunrun is flying too close to the sun
A review of Sunrun’s financial performance through Q2 of 2021 will illuminate the structural challenges facing its business model.
Chewy looks to become the supply chain platform for pet care
Chewy is a great company and is succeeding at penetrating the pet care market. That said, at the current valuation, the risks outweigh the rewards.
Crowdstrike is soaring above the market valuation canopy
Crowdstrike is a great company performing at the top of its game, however, the valuation reflects this and then some.
Zoom is returning to earth after the boom
The red flag regarding the acquisition of Five9 is the incredible purchase price which is to be paid for entirely with Zoom stock.
Peloton is putting all its chips on the table
Peloton guides lower as negative cash flow begins to strain its balance sheet. There is extraordinary risk across all time horizons.
Salesforce is fueled by a herd of unicorns
Salesforce faces an increasingly negative risk/reward setup as its unicorn acquisition strategy replaces organic growth.
Snowflake is drifting towards valuation outer limits
Snowflake is in hypergrowth mode. The extreme valuation combined with the inevitable growth deceleration create extraordinary risk.
B2Gold is a high beta gold play looking to bounce
Highly economic mining operations and a consistent track record are the defining characteristics of the B2Gold investment case, geopolitical risk aside.
EOG Resources has pent up energy
EOG Resources is among the highest quality US oil and natural gas producers. The company has a premium asset base across the most prolific shale basins in the United States.
Workday has its work cut out for it
Workday faces stiff competition as evidenced by a recent high-profile loss of Amazon business to Oracle.
Ross Stores expects to earn less
Ross gave very weak guidance for the second half of the year while the shares continue to trade at a premium valuation.
Robinhood can’t see the forest for the trees
The inability to forecast the business due to extraordinarily risky products leaves more risk than reward for Robinhood.
Sea Ltd. is sailing in a sea of momentum
The extreme valuation and lack of visibility on the profitability of Sea’s business model create extraordinary risk for investors.
Roblox is in the metaverse
Roblox is arguably one of the most exciting growth stories. All told, Roblox should be on the watchlist for aggressive growth investors.
Airbnb is on an extended stay
Airbnb has been subdued given the many opposing macro forces acting on its business. The elevated valuation carries elevated risk.
Wish investors need to make another wish
Wish was down 26% pre-market after reporting disappointing Q2 financial results reaffirming the extreme risk of its business model.
Coinbase is cashing in on US retail customers
The Coinbase business model is heavily dependent on US retail investors. This reliance creates substantial risk.
3D Systems is printing an uptrend
The success of 3D Systems hinges on the capital allocation decisions that will be made. There is reason for optimism given recent improvements.
Lemonade is leaving a sour taste with investors
Lemonade faces increasing operational risks as it expands into new business lines while remaining structurally unprofitable.
Datadog is off its leash
Datadog is performing well on the business front. With the breakout to new all-time highs, the question remains one of valuation.
Akamai is looking for the next wave
Akamai is a leader in the intelligent edge. Given the healthy business outlook, the investment case rests on Akamai’s valuation.
Lyft is stuck in traffic
Lyft’s lack of cash flow and profitability creates a challenging backdrop for the elevated valuation of its shares.
Clorox is getting cleaned out
Clorox provided guidance for 2022 that is well below expectations with negative macro trends. Multiple compression risk is high.
Square is pushing valuation limits
Square pulled out all the stops in announcing its second quarter earnings five days early raising red flags in the process.
PayPal has been paid in full
PayPal Holdings is a market leader in the digital payments industry and as such has created lofty expectations.
Teladoc Health needs a wellness check
Teladoc Health is showing signs of fatigue in virtual healthcare. While COVID provided a shot in the arm, it is time for a wellness check.
Polaris may kick up some dust
Polaris finds itself in the enviable position of selling the majority of its products prior to having the actual inventory to meet the demand.
Twitter is trying to stick a landing
Twitter has had easy comparisons in 2021. With underlying user growth of 11%, the valuation multiple appears quite high.
Netflix faces COVID hangover
Netflix was a COVID winner. The question for Netflix is whether 2020 was as good as it gets.
Beyond Meat is beyond profitability
Beyond Meat experienced rapid revenue growth in recent years but is now hitting a soft spot in the marketplace with conditions worsening.
Ross Stores is earning less
Ross trades at an extreme valuation in relation to its mature growth prospects while the current macro environment is decidedly negative for Ross.
Flex is ready to flex its muscles
Flex is the manufacturer and critical supply chain partner to many of today’s leading brands. The current valuation does not reflect this reality.
NVIDIA is at the top of its game
NVIDIA’s extraordinary valuation reflects its leadership while pricing in much of the foreseeable future leaving little on the table.
Datadog is in the doghouse
Datadog became a highflyer in 2020. The extreme valuation creates extraordinary risk while the growth rate is set to decline.
AngloGold Ashanti is going for the gold
AngloGold Ashanti is nearing the end of a transition phase, laying the foundation for a higher quality gold investment with growth potential.
Estee Lauder is priced for perfection
Estee Lauder is the premier global beauty company; at the current extreme valuation, its stock fully reflects this fact.
Intel offers intel on expectations
Intel recently announced an ambitious growth plan and a recommitment to its integrated device manufacturing (IDM) business model.
Snap valuation coming into focus
Snap delivered 66% revenue growth in Q1 and projects the trend to continue, as such, the investment case revolves around valuation.
The Trade Desk is a trade
The Trade Desk is trading at an extreme valuation which is pricing in much of the foreseeable future leaving little on the table for new investors.
Pioneer Natural Resources strikes cash flow gusher
Pioneer Natural Resources is sitting on the sweet spot of one of the highest quality oil and gas reserves in the United States.
Mastercard has a payment problem
Mastercard was unusually weak year in 2020. The lack of organic growth while trading at an extreme valuation creates a heightened risk.
Aspen Aerogels skyrockets on Koch growth investment
Aspen Aerogels announced an investment by Koch Investments at $21.66 per share, Aspen is on the cusp of an incredible opportunity.
Tesla is running low on energy
Tesla is the most extremely valued U.S. mega-cap company. The extraordinary valuation for an auto OEM has no historical precedent.
BWX Technologies is set for takeoff
BWX Technologies offers an enticing investment in exciting growth opportunities while operating behind a wide competitive moat.
Pfizer deserves more respect for COVID vaccine
Pfizer displayed superior capabilities by executing on the top COVID vaccine while the market continues to ignore Pfizer’s prospects.
AMC investors need more than free popcorn
At a current equity valuation of $27 billion, the stock of the company is being valued at 246x peak earnings of recent years. Unfortunately, the fundamentals of the company have been deteriorating well before this…
FedEx is a world-class supply chain and distribution network
The global distribution network and capabilities of FedEx are likely to become more valuable with time.
Virgin Galactic is in the stratosphere
Virgin Galactic is rallying 30% on news that the FAA has licensed it for commercial passengers. This is not news, thereby creating extreme risk.
NVE could explode given current trends
NVE Corporation is a US semiconductor company specializing in spintronics. Current trends create a unique opportunity.
Chesapeake Energy looking up after bankruptcy
Chesapeake Energy exited bankruptcy and now has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry with a quality asset base.
Amazon has entered the jungle
Amazon was the largest beneficiary of the COVID lockdowns, a perfect storm to take market share. This is about to change.
Wish investors require wishful thinking
Wish grew revenue 75% in Q1 leading to a 174% increase in negative cash flow illuminating the extreme risk of its business model.
Etsy at risk of weak demand
Etsy acquired a retail clothing marketplace, Depop, for 23x sales raising a red flag for demand at its core marketplace business.
Square at risk due to squared valuation multiple
The market value of Square is extraordinary compared to its underlying business, creating an extremely negative risk/reward setup.
Lemonade could leave a sour taste with investors
Lemonade remains structurally unprofitable while marketing its stock to retail investors, placing the brand at risk.
Peloton is cycling to a head and shoulders workout
Peloton consummated a death cross in April. Ominously, the stock has now carved out a major head and shoulders top.
Uber faces a long road to profitability
Uber, the most successful mobility brand of the past decade, has yet to turn its brand into a profitable business model.
Workday has a tough job ahead of it
Workday has exited its hypergrowth phase yet its valuation multiple has not, thereby creating downside risk for the stock.